Argentina's risk premium rises to 450 points as peso dollar nears 1,500

Argentina's sovereign risk indicator jumped to 450 basis points, the highest level in two months, prompting a sell‑off in local equities and a widening of the country‑risk spread. The S&P Merval index slipped, with Loma Negra and BYMA among the biggest losers, while Argentine ADRs on Wall Street also fell.

The official peso dollar traded at 1.520 per US$ and the wholesale rate edged up to around 1,500, staying below the psychological 1,500 barrier. Central bank forecasts anticipate further depreciation, projecting the wholesale peso at roughly 1,513 in August and above 1,600 by year‑end. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Argentina continued building foreign‑exchange reserves, surpassing US$50 billion for the first time since 2019.

Analysts note that the rise in risk premium reflects concerns over inflation, slower‑than‑expected CPI in Buenos Aires, and uncertainty about monetary policy. Market participants are watching upcoming inflation data and the next REM (Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado) release for clues on the peso’s trajectory.