Finland's Ministry of Finance projects 0.8% GDP growth in 2024 amid Middle East tensions

Finland's Ministry of Finance released an updated economic outlook, forecasting real GDP growth of 0.8 % for 2024. The outlook foresees the economy expanding to 1.6 % in 2025 and 1.7 % in 2026. Growth this year is attributed partly to temporary factors, while structural issues remain.

Unemployment is expected to rise to 10.4 % in 2024, with a weak labour market especially in permanent and full‑time private‑sector jobs. The public sector deficit is projected at about 4.4‑4.5 % of GDP, and the debt‑to‑GDP ratio is over 90 %, projected to near 99 % by 2030 unless new fiscal adjustments are made.

Risks to the outlook include the ongoing Middle‑East crisis, high energy prices and rising interest rates, which could lift oil prices further and dampen both domestic consumption and export demand. While defence, energy and technology investments are bolstering investment numbers, they add little to domestic production. The ministry stresses that structural imbalances will require swift, direct fiscal measures in the next government term.