Finland's economy projected to grow 1.5% in 2024 amid rising unemployment and a shoplifting surge

Finland’s latest forecast from the mortgage‑lender Hypo predicts gross domestic product will expand by 1.5 % this year and 1.7 % next year, the fastest pace in five years. Household and business confidence has improved to its highest level since 2022, but the recovery is constrained by high unemployment, a large number of bankruptcies and lingering external uncertainty.

Unemployment is expected to average 10.8 % in 2024, edging down to 10 % in 2025 – the highest rate since the late 1990s. Around one‑million Finns are at risk of poverty or social exclusion, with 17.3 % of the population already classified as vulnerable. Inflation eased modestly in June, with the EU‑harmonised rate falling to 2.7 % from 2.8 %.

A parallel social trend is a sharp rise in shoplifting. Helsinki police anticipate roughly 26,000 incidents this year, double the figure recorded in 2024. Criminologists link the surge to strained household finances, noting that everyday items such as food and transport fares have become attractive targets for theft as more people struggle to make ends meet.