Fitch affirms Qatar’s ‘AA’ rating while maintaining negative outlook

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘AA’ and removed the country from its ‘Rating Watch Negative’ list. The decision follows a reduction in perceived risks to Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities since March.

Despite the removal from the watch list, Fitch maintained a negative outlook for the country. This outlook reflects ongoing vulnerabilities, specifically the potential for prolonged disruptions to LNG exports through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. The agency noted that while the risk of further severe damage to energy infrastructure has decreased, the full impact of the ongoing conflict on Qatar’s credit profile remains to be fully determined.

Qatar’s ‘AA’ rating is supported by its exceptionally high GDP per capita, large sovereign assets, and expected increases in gas production capacity. However, weaknesses include a heavy dependence on hydrocarbons, exposure to geopolitical risks, and the impact of the war on the ability to export gas through the Strait of Hormuz. Fitch anticipates that conditions conducive to resuming exports through the Strait may not be met until the first quarter of 2027.