Fitch raises Poland's deficit and debt projections

Fitch has revised its economic outlook for Poland, raising the projected general government sector deficit to 7.1% of GDP for 2027, up from a previous estimate of 6.7%. The agency expects the budget deficit to remain high at 7.3% of GDP in 2026, before decreasing to 7.1% in 2027 and 6.5% in 2028.

Public debt is also projected to rise to 73.4% of GDP by 2028. Fitch noted that the lack of a budget consolidation strategy and the potential for pre-election fiscal loosening ahead of the 2027 elections contribute to these figures. Additionally, the agency highlighted that political friction between the government and the president may limit the effectiveness of economic reforms and policy implementation.

Regarding economic growth, Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026, with a slowdown to 3% in the 2027-2028 period.