Fitch Ratings assesses resilience of Turkish economy

Douglas Winslow, a Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, provided an assessment of the Turkish economy, noting that recent shocks have not pressured the country's credit rating. He emphasized that Türkiye remains resilient against external shocks and that current reserves are at sufficient levels to manage potential volatility.

Addressing recent concerns regarding a fund investigation, Winslow stated that while the development is negative, it is not expected to have a direct impact on the general economy or the credit rating. He noted that no systemic risk or increased risk of dollarization is anticipated from this issue.

Regarding monetary policy and inflation, Fitch expects inflation to drop to 30.5 percent by the end of the year. While the Central Bank is expected to maintain a tight monetary policy, Winslow suggested a potential 150 basis point interest rate cut could occur toward the end of the year.

For currency forecasts, Winslow anticipates continued gradual real appreciation of the Lira. He projected the USD/TRY exchange rate to reach 51 lira by the end of the year and 60 lira by the end of 2027.