Fitch Ratings raises 2026 global growth forecast to 2.6%

Fitch Ratings has revised its 2026 global GDP growth forecast upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%, noting that the global economy has remained resilient despite energy price shocks.

The United States' growth projections for both 2026 and 2027 have been increased to 2.1%, driven by resilient consumption and rapid investment in artificial intelligence. Conversely, China's 2026 growth forecast was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 4.5% due to declining fixed-asset investment and weak consumer spending.

South Korea, Japan, and Mexico are expected to benefit from increased global technology spending. Meanwhile, the global monetary policy landscape is shifting toward a more hawkish stance. Fitch anticipates the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, reaching 4.25%, and maintain that level through 2027. This represents a significant shift from previous outlooks, as central banks aim to mitigate risks from energy price volatility.