Fitch Ratings warns of AI overvaluation and US‑Iran tension

Fitch Ratings’ third‑quarter Global Risk Outlook identifies two primary threats to the worldwide credit market: excessive valuations in the artificial‑intelligence sector and the rising geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran. The agency notes that AI‑driven spending by leading technology firms has pushed US corporate bond issuance up 26 % in early 2026, with capital expenditures projected to top $700 billion, raising fears of a dot‑com‑style bubble.

In a separate assessment, Fitch finds the global sukuk (Islamic bond) market remains robust despite the same US‑Iran friction. Issuances have risen to 82.6 % of total rated debt, with no defaults recorded since the conflict began. The market’s outlook continues to depend on how the US‑Iran relationship evolves, while Turkey’s Emlak Konut GYO marked the country's first sukuk issuance.

Overall, Fitch cautions that both the AI investment surge and geopolitical volatility could weigh heavily on credit conditions worldwide.