Florida faces calm July with low hurricane risk amid El Niño conditions

The Atlantic hurricane season has entered its second month, but forecasters expect July to remain relatively quiet over Florida. The National Hurricane Center is watching a low‑potential area off the Southeast coast, with any development likely to be slow as a frontal boundary drifts westward. An El Niño pattern is influencing wind shear and sea‑surface temperatures, further suppressing tropical cyclone formation.

Historically, July produces only one to two named storms in the basin, with a hurricane forming roughly once every three years. Since the 1850s, only 27 tropical cyclones have made landfall in Florida during July. The most recent July events were Tropical Storm Elsa in 2021, causing about $700 million in damage, and Hurricane Dennis in 2005, causing over $2 billion in damage.

In the 2026 season, Tropical Storm Arthur was the sole named storm to date, and the next named system, Bertha, shows no signs of forming soon.