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Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tie in potential second-round runoff poll
A new Quaest poll shows a technical tie in a potential second-round runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro leads numerically with 42% of the vote, while Lula follows with 40%, a margin within the survey's two-percentage-point error range. This marks the first time since April that Bolsonaro has appeared ahead of Lula in a Quaest series.
In a first-round scenario, Lula maintains a lead with 36% compared to Bolsonaro's 31%. Both candidates face high rejection rates, with 55% of respondents stating they would not vote for either man.
Regional and demographic data reveal a polarized landscape. Bolsonaro holds a significant 16-point lead in the Southeast and performs strongly among male voters and younger demographics. Conversely, Lula maintains a dominant 60% lead in the Northeast and performs better among voters aged 60 and older. Analysts suggest the tightening race is driven by shifting sentiments among independent voters and those in the Southeast with middle-income brackets.
Entities
Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · PL · PT · Quaest · TSE
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Both Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva share an identical rejection rate of 55%. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · jornaldebrasilia.com.br
- [● 5 SOURCES] In a potential second-round runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro holds 42% of the vote compared to 40% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · mshoje.com.br · jornaldebrasilia.com.br · veja.abril.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] In the Southeast region, Flávio Bolsonaro holds a 16-point lead over Lula. mshoje.com.br · www.spacemoney.com.br · diariodoestadogo.com.br
- [● 4 SOURCES] The gap between Bolsonaro and Lula is within the two-percentage-point margin of error, representing a technical tie. mshoje.com.br · jornaldebrasilia.com.br · veja.abril.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Lula maintains a lead in the Northeast with 60% of the vote against 28% for Flávio Bolsonaro. mshoje.com.br · www.spacemoney.com.br
- [● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro leads among male voters with 47% compared to Lula's 38%. mshoje.com.br · jornaldebrasilia.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] PL leader Sóstenes Cavalcante stated that the party had identified Flávio Bolsonaro's rising trend two weeks before the Quaest survey results. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br
- [● 5 SOURCES] In a first-round scenario, Lula has 36% of the vote and Flávio Bolsonaro has 31%. www.brasilemfolhas.com.br · mshoje.com.br · jornaldebrasilia.com.br · veja.abril.com.br