Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in simulated second-round runoff, Vox poll shows

Brazilian presidential election Flávio Bolsonaro Lula Vox Brasil poll political polarization

A new Vox Brasil poll indicates a shift in the Brazilian presidential race, showing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a simulated second-round runoff. Bolsonaro holds 45.1% of the vote compared to Lula's 44.5%, a difference that falls within the poll's 2.15 percentage point margin of error, representing a technical tie.

In the first-round scenario, Lula maintains a lead with 37.1% of the vote, while Bolsonaro follows with 34.8%. The data shows a trend of opposing movement: Bolsonaro's support has increased by four points since July, whereas Lula's support has decreased by three points in the same period.

Separately, the Workers' Party (PT) has outlined its legislative goals for the October elections. Party Vice-President Jilmar Tatto stated that the PT aims to elect 90 federal deputies and 14 senators. The party also seeks to re-elect Lula and retain governorships in Bahia, Ceará, Piauí, and Rio Grande do Norte, citing high political polarization as a driver for growth in both major party blocs.

Entities

Brazil · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · Vox Brasil · Workers' Party

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 2 SOURCES] In the first round, Lula leads with 37.1% of the vote, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 34.8%. radiosampaio.com.br · www.bahianoticias.com.br
[● 2 SOURCES] Flávio Bolsonaro's support grew by four percentage points since July, rising from 41.1% to 45.1%. radiosampaio.com.br · veja.abril.com.br
[● 2 SOURCES] Lula's support fell by three percentage points since July, dropping from 47.5% to 44.5%. radiosampaio.com.br · veja.abril.com.br
[○ 1 SOURCE] The PT projects re-electing President Lula and maintaining governorships in Bahia, Ceará, Piauí, and Rio Grande do Norte. www.conexaopolitica.com.br
[○ 1 SOURCE] The Workers' Party (PT) aims to elect 90 federal deputies and 14 senators in the October elections. www.conexaopolitica.com.br
[● 3 SOURCES] The second-round matchup between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula constitutes a technical tie within a 2.15 percentage point margin of error. radiosampaio.com.br · www.bahianoticias.com.br · veja.abril.com.br
[● 3 SOURCES] The Vox Brasil poll interviewed 2,100 voters between August 25 and 27. radiosampaio.com.br · www.bahianoticias.com.br · veja.abril.com.br
[● 3 SOURCES] In a simulated second-round runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 45.1% to 44.5%. radiosampaio.com.br · www.bahianoticias.com.br · veja.abril.com.br

Sources

Vox: Flávio cresce, vai a 45,1%, e passa Lula, que tem 44,5%, no 2º turno - RÁDIO SAMPAIO [radiosampaio.com.br]

about 3 hours ago

PT projeta eleger 90 deputados, 14 senadores, 4 governadores, além de reeleger Lula para presidente [www.conexaopolitica.com.br]

about 1 hour ago

Vox: Flávio cresce, vai a 45,1%, e passa Lula, que tem 44,5%, no 2º turno - Bahia Notícias [www.bahianoticias.com.br]

about 2 hours ago

Pesquisa Vox Brasil: Flávio assume a liderança numérica contra Lula em simulação de 2º turno [veja.abril.com.br]

about 3 hours ago