Flávio Bolsonaro retains voter base despite family rift with ex‑first lady Michelle

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL‑RJ) remains the leading right‑wing contender for Brazil’s 2026 presidential race despite a public dispute with ex‑first lady Michelle Bolsonaro. Michelle released videos accusing Flávio of rude and humiliating behavior during a phone call about party negotiations in Ceará; Flávio denied the allegations and apologized if she felt offended. Allies of both figures see little prospect of reconciliation in the short term, with Michelle stepping down from PL Mulher and indicating she will not run for the Senate.

Polls conducted after the rift show Flávio maintaining roughly 40‑44% support in a potential second‑round contest against President Luiz Inácio Lula, who leads with about 47‑49%. The Nexus survey (2,009 respondents) and AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll (4,999 respondents) both indicate an technical tie within the margin of error. Among bolsonarist voters, 81.9% prefer Flávio over Michelle’s 14.7%, and 86.9% of bolsonarist women favor him. The controversy surrounding a film‑financing discussion with banker Daniel Vorcaro has not materially affected his base.

Party figures, including PL deputy Priscila Costa, stress the need for unity on the right to counter Lula’s campaign, while other Bolsonaro sons maintain distance from the feud.