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Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro lead 2026 Brazilian presidential polls FAST-MOVING
New polling data for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election shows a highly polarized race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
According to Datafolha, Lula leads the first round with 39% of the vote, while Flávio Bolsonaro follows with 33%. In a potential second-round matchup, Datafolha places Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 43%, a margin within the 2% error rate. However, a separate Veritá poll suggests a different dynamic, indicating Flávio Bolsonaro could lead a second-round contest with 47.3% against Lula's 42%, or show a technical tie at 41% to 40.9%.
Other candidates in the first round include Ronaldo Caiado (5%), Renan Santos (4%), and Romeu Zema (3%).
In campaign developments, Flávio Bolsonaro has expanded his economic team by adding seven specialists, including former officials from the Ministry of Economy. Additionally, the Senator has signaled a potential 'transition presidency,' expressing interest in serving a single term to facilitate future leadership transitions, consistent with his support for ending presidential re-election.
Entities
Brazil · Datafolha · Flávio Bolsonaro · Jair Bolsonaro · Liberal Party · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Tarcísio de Freitas · Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · Veritá
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro expressed interest in serving as a transition president, aligning with his proposal to end presidential re-election. www.cartacapital.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Veritá reports a technical tie in a second-round matchup between Lula (41.0%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (40.9%). www.jairsampaio.com
- [DISPUTED] A Veritá poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in a second-round scenario with 47.3% to 42%. didigalvao.com.br · www.jairsampaio.com · jovempannewscampinas.com.br
- [● 6 SOURCES] Other candidates in the first round include Ronaldo Caiado at 5%, Renan Santos at 4%, and Romeu Zema at 3%. valor.globo.com · www.reportermt.com · www.em.com.br · www.infomoney.com.br · www.moneytimes.com.br · +1 more
- [● 7 SOURCES] In a first-round simulation, President Lula holds 39% of the vote compared to 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro. valor.globo.com · portalleiamais.com.br · www.reportermt.com · www.em.com.br · www.infomoney.com.br · +2 more
- [DISPUTED] In a potential second-round matchup, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 43%, a margin within the 2% error rate. valor.globo.com · portalleiamais.com.br · www.infomoney.com.br · www.moneytimes.com.br · www.brasil247.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Flávio Bolsonaro has expanded his economic team with seven new members, including former Ministry of Economy officials. www.moneyreport.com.br