started · updated
Argentina economy faces contraction as country risk exceeds 600 points
Argentina is facing significant economic challenges as official data from INDEC shows a 2.9% contraction in economic activity for July compared to June, marking its sharpest monthly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. This downturn has contributed to a technical recession, with year-on-year activity also falling by 1.4%. Key sectors such as manufacturing (-4.6%) and construction (-3.3%) reported declines, though fishing saw a massive 424.5% increase.
Financial markets are reacting to this instability. Argentina's country risk index, calculated by JP Morgan, has surged past 600 basis points, reaching levels not seen in several months. This rise in risk, combined with global interest rate pressures, has led to a sell-off in Argentine sovereign bonds and stocks. Additionally, fuel consumption has entered its seventh consecutive month of year-on-year decline, with August sales dropping 2.2%.
In contrast, Paraguay is showing economic resilience. The Central Bank of Paraguay reported a 4% growth in the second quarter of 2026, driven by a 13% jump in electricity and water production and an 11.1% increase in agriculture. Itaú Bank has even raised its 2026 GDP growth projection for Paraguay from 4.0% to 4.5%, citing strong domestic consumption.
Entities
Analytica · Argentina · Banco de México · Banxico · Central American Monetary Council · Central Bank of the Dominican Republic · Econviews · Fundación Libertad y Progreso · IMF · INDEC · INEGI · JP Morgan
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 6 SOURCES] Argentina's country risk index reached 566 basis points on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. somoscordobeses.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Gross reserves at the Central Bank fell to 48,933 million dollars.
- [● 3 SOURCES] The S&P Merval index fell 1% in pesos and 1.3% in dollars. somoscordobeses.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] The country risk index has seen eight consecutive days of increases. somoscordobeses.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] Argentine sovereign bonds in dollars experienced declines, with the AL35 falling 1.7%. somoscordobeses.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The government has ruled out immediate external debt issuance to refinance maturities.
- [● 2 SOURCES] The Argentine government faces an 800 million USD debt payment to the IMF. fmimpacto107.com.ar
- [● 2 SOURCES] The wholesale dollar rate reached 1,518 pesos.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Argentina's CPI rose 1.7% in August compared to July.
- [● 8 SOURCES] Argentina's economic activity fell 2.9% in July compared to June. mendozatoday.com.ar · esnoticiatdf.com · elcorresponsalweb.com.ar · santotomealdia.com.ar · cuestionentrerriana.com.ar · +2 more
- [● 6 SOURCES] The year-on-year economic activity in Argentina decreased by 1.4% in July. esnoticiatdf.com · elcorresponsalweb.com.ar · santotomealdia.com.ar · cuestionentrerriana.com.ar · elagrocorrentino.com.ar
- [● 2 SOURCES] Analytica projects September's CPI will reach 2% due to a 1.8% weekly increase in food and beverages.