France economy shows mixed signals with PMI expansion and regional slowdown

The French economy is showing conflicting indicators as of late September 2026. According to S&P Global, the French composite PMI rose from 48.5 in August to 51.2 in September, signaling a return to expansion in the private sector for the first time since summer 2024. This growth is largely attributed to a recovery in industry and services.

However, other metrics suggest economic fragility. Insee reports that the business climate has declined to 96.4 points, remaining below its long-term average. While industry remains stable, retail and wholesale trade have seen declines.

On a regional level in Occitanie, the situation is more difficult. Economic activity decreased by 0.4% in the second quarter, with construction and commercial services facing downturns. The regional unemployment rate rose to 9.7%, notably higher than the national average of 8.3%. Additionally, tourism in the region saw a 3.4% decrease in overnight stays.