France emerges as top 2026 World Cup favorite as Opta supercomputer projects 27% win chance

The quarter‑final stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup has begun, with eight teams remaining. An Opta supercomputer simulation predicts France as the clear favorite to win the tournament, assigning it a 27.3 % probability. Spain follows in second place with about 21 % odds, while the defending champions Argentina and England are close behind at 17 % and 16 % respectively.

Match‑up odds show France facing Morocco with a 73.9 % chance of advancing, Spain versus Belgium at 69.7 %, Argentina against Switzerland at 69.1 %, and England taking on Norway with a 62.4 % likelihood of progression. Other quarter‑finalists include Norway, making its first appearance since 1998, and Switzerland, also a debutant at this stage.

The model, which correctly forecast six of the eight teams that reached this round, has been cited by betting markets that note Spain’s recent dominance over France in knockout games. Overall, the predictions highlight a tight contest among traditional powers and several surprise qualifiers.