France faces decline of 1.7 million students by 2035

France is facing a significant demographic shift in its education system, with the Ministry of National Education projecting a loss of 1.7 million students by 2035. This represents a 14.2% decline compared to the 2025 school year. The decline, driven by falling birth rates, has already heavily impacted primary schools and is now moving through middle schools toward high schools.

Between the 2024 and 2025 school years, enrollment dropped by approximately 120,900 students, with an additional decrease of about 160,000 expected for the 2026 school year. While primary schools have seen a 9.2% reduction in students since 2015, class sizes are expected to decrease, potentially averaging 21 students per class by 2026.

Experts and officials are debating how to manage this transition. Rather than using the shrinking student population as a justification for budget cuts, there are calls to use the demographic shift to improve educational quality, reduce inequalities, and enhance student support services. The upcoming presidential election is expected to make sustainable educational policy and the renovation of public education a central issue.