France faces rising debt and tight 2027 budget

An independent report commissioned by the French finance ministry warns that public debt could exceed 130 % of GDP by 2030 and the deficit could rise to nearly 7 % of GDP if spending is not curbed. Interest payments on the debt are projected to climb from €78 billion in 2026 to €124 billion in 2030. In response, the government has set 2027 spending ceilings that limit the growth of most ministerial budgets to 0.4 % – about four times slower than inflation – while allowing defence spending to rise by €6.4 billion and debt‑service costs to increase by €12.3 billion. Total central‑government spending is capped at €708.4 billion, with social‑security outlays still expected to grow by €17 billion. The report calls for cumulative fiscal tightening of €126 billion by 2032, including a possible “white‑year” budget in 2027 with no new expenditures. The fiscal plan is being debated ahead of the 2027 presidential election, where a widening deficit could become a political flash‑point.