France Leads World Cup 2026 Title Odds, Opta Predicts

Opta’s supercomputer simulated the 2026 World Cup knockout stage 25,000 times after the group phase. It assigned France an 18.6‑18.7 % chance of winning the tournament, making it the top‑ranked favorite. Argentina follows as the second‑most likely champion with a 16.2‑16.3 % probability, and Spain is third with about 13.5 %.

England, Brazil and the Netherlands round out the ten teams with the highest odds at roughly 9.7 %, 6.5 % and 5.1 % respectively. The three host nations – the United States, Canada and Mexico – have much lower chances of lifting the trophy, estimated at 2.45 %, 0.47 % and 1.81 %.

These probabilities reflect all possible match‑up scenarios from the round of 32 onward, with the supercomputer also projecting the most likely winners of individual knockout ties.