France tops odds to win 2026 World Cup, Portugal at 5%

Opta’s latest simulation of roughly 25,000 runs predicts France as the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup with a 28.8% chance. Argentina follows at 16.3%, Spain drops to 12.9%, Brazil holds 9.1%, England 8.1% and Portugal 5%, down from 7% before the tournament began.

Recent results show France defeating Sweden 3‑0 and preparing to meet Paraguay in the round of 16. Portugal will face Spain in the same stage, while Argentina, after a narrow 3‑2 win over Cape Verde, is set to play Egypt. The odds reflect each team's form, squad depth, upcoming fixtures and overall tournament path.

The rankings also list Colombia, Morocco, Norway and Mexico among the darker‑horse teams with around a 3% chance each, underscoring the competitive field ahead of the World Cup in Mexico, the United States and Canada.