French electorate shows high polarization and shifting political popularity

Recent studies and opinion polls indicate a significant shift in the French political landscape as the 2027 presidential election approaches. Data from the Cluster 17 institute for the Terra Nova foundation reveals a highly polarized electorate, with 80% of voters identifying with specific political universes. The electorate is divided into five major ideological blocs, including nationalist right (27%), radical left (18%), the center (18%), liberal-conservative right (18%), and social-ecologist left (17%).

Electoral mobility is largely restricted to neighboring ideological groups, meaning voters tend to shift between similar parties rather than across the spectrum. Marine Le Pen maintains a strong position with a wide electoral base that is potentially expandable to the liberal-conservative right.

According to Elabe polling, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella continue to lead in popularity, with both maintaining high favorable ratings. In contrast, former Prime Ministers Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal have seen a sharp decline in approval, even among Macronist voters. Meanwhile, Raphaël Glucksmann has shown notable progress, gaining 10 points in popularity among the presidential majority electorate.