French Polynesia faces high cyclone risk due to intense El Niño

Météo-France has issued an alert regarding an exceptionally high risk of tropical cyclones and extreme weather for French Polynesia during the 2026-2027 warm season. The primary driver is the El Niño phenomenon, which has reached a “very strong” stage and is expected to peak between November and December.

Forecasters warn that this El Niño episode could potentially become the most intense ever observed. The resulting warmer surface waters act as fuel for tropical systems, increasing the likelihood of named phenomena ranging from moderate depressions to full cyclones.

The Society Islands and the Tuamotu archipelago are identified as being at particularly high risk. The Austral Islands face a moderate risk, while the Marquesas and Gambier Islands are expected to experience a lower probability of significant tropical activity. Potential impacts include violent winds, heavy rainfall, strong swells, and marine heatwaves.