Friedrich Merz faces declining authority and rising AfD popularity in Germany

Recent polling data reveals significant political challenges for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU. According to YouGov surveys, a majority of respondents believe Merz will not complete his full term until the 2029 elections. Specifically, 36 percent expect him to be replaced before 2029, while 18 percent anticipate a replacement within the current year. Only 29 percent believe he will serve the full term.

Merz's authority appears to be declining. A majority of voters report that recent personnel changes within his cabinet and the CDU have resulted in a loss of authority rather than a gain. Furthermore, in comparisons of suitability for the chancellorship, North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst (25 percent) holds a higher preference among respondents than Merz (9 percent).

Simultaneously, the AfD is seeing a rise in popularity, climbing to 29 percent in recent Insa polls, placing it ahead of the CDU/CSU, which sits at 21 percent. Despite 53 percent of respondents labeling the AfD as right-wing extremist, a significant portion of the electorate indicates they would still vote for the party. This political shift comes amid calls from figures like SPD's Dirk Kienscherf for a ban on the AfD, citing its potential threat to the democratic order.