Fuel price outlooks vary as experts debate impact of reserves and supply

Experts and industry representatives are offering differing outlooks on fuel price trends and the impact of strategic reserves.

One analyst suggests that releasing strategic reserves is unlikely to lead to a significant or long-term decrease in fuel prices in Bulgaria. The reasoning provided is that current reserves are insufficient to meet both short-term and long-term demand for diesel and kerosene, and that global refining capacity remains limited. Furthermore, depleting reserves could increase risks during future supply disruptions.

Conversely, a representative from the Association of Bulgarian Traders, Producers, Importers and Carriers of Fuels predicts that fuel prices have peaked and will begin a gradual decline. This optimism is attributed to increased oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen nearly 90% of its transit capacity restored. While prices may remain stable for about a month, a market correction is expected within two to three months, potentially bringing diesel prices slightly below 1.90 euro per liter and gasoline well below 1.65 euro per liter.