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CLARITY Act passage odds drop to 10% amid Senate hurdles
The probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has been significantly downgraded by Galaxy Research from 75% to 10%. The legislation, which aims to establish a unified regulatory framework for digital assets by dividing oversight between the SEC and the CFTC, faces several political and procedural hurdles.
Key obstacles include unresolved ethics rules regarding government officials' digital asset holdings and intense lobbying from the banking sector. Banks, including JPMorgan Chase, have expressed concerns that stablecoin yield provisions could trigger a mass exodus of deposits from traditional financial institutions.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has filed a cloture motion to proceed to the bill, with a procedural vote scheduled for September 15. However, the Senate's limited working session following the August recess provides a narrow window for passage. If the bill fails, regulators like the SEC and CFTC may move forward with independent administrative rules to fill the regulatory gap.
Entities
CLARITY Act · Citigroup · Commodity Futures Trading Commission · Galaxy Digital · Galaxy Research · John Thune · Securities and Exchange Commission · U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission · U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission · U.S. Senate · United States Senate
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Citigroup has publicly urged Congress to pass the CLARITY Act to support safe digital asset adoption. www.merca2.es
- [● 6 SOURCES] A Senate procedural vote on the bill is scheduled for September 15. www.blockmedia.co.kr · news.bitcoin.com · www.finanzen.ch · bitcoinethereumnews.com · www.neweconomy.jp
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Former House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry expects the bill to pass later this year.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion to proceed to the bill. www.blockmedia.co.kr · news.bitcoin.com · bitcoinethereumnews.com · cryptobriefing.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] The CLARITY Act aims to establish a unified regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. www.blockmedia.co.kr · news.bitcoin.com · techbullion.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Passing the bill requires at least 60 votes, meaning Republicans would need at least seven Democratic votes. www.blockmedia.co.kr · news.bitcoin.com · techbullion.com
- [● 5 SOURCES] The bill would divide U.S. crypto oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. www.blockmedia.co.kr · news.bitcoin.com · cryptobriefing.com · www.finanzen.ch
- [● 4 SOURCES] Banks oppose the bill due to concerns that stablecoin yields will cause deposits to flee traditional banking institutions. assodigitale.it · www.blockmedia.co.kr
- [● 4 SOURCES] Galaxy Research lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% to 10%. www.blockmedia.co.kr · bitcoinethereumnews.com · www.cryptobreaking.com · news.bitcoin.com