Galaxy Research cuts CLARITY Act passage odds to 60% amid Senate schedule concerns

Galaxy Research, led by Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s chance of passage in 2026 from 75% to 60%. The downgrade reflects growing worries that the U.S. Senate’s jam‑packed calendar and pending FISA‑related matters will leave little legislative time for the cryptocurrency market‑structure bill.

The CLARITY Act seeks to split regulatory authority over digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC, clarifying which tokens are treated as securities and which as commodities. Thorn noted that unresolved ethics guidelines for lawmakers and measures to tackle illegal financing also impede progress. Despite the reduced odds, Galaxy Research remains optimistic that the bill will eventually be enacted.