Geopolitical shifts driven by Russian assets and water scarcity

Geopolitical stability is increasingly being shaped by the management of economic assets and the control of scarce natural resources. In the context of the conflict in Ukraine, a new financing structure is being developed that relies on a significant capital base of approximately 200 billion euros derived from Russian assets. This approach aims to transform logistical support into a coherent strategy of economic and technological pressure.

Simultaneously, water scarcity is emerging as a major threat multiplier in international relations. The disconnect between political borders and natural river basins creates structural asymmetries between upstream and downstream nations. A critical example is the Nile River basin, where Ethiopia’s unilateral decision to operate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has altered security balances in Northeast Africa, posing a direct threat to Egypt’s water and food security.