Geopolitical shocks and economic signals increase global supply chain risks

Global businesses are facing an increasingly complex risk environment as geopolitical disruptions, trade barriers, and climate shocks interact to threaten supply chains. Commodity intelligence firm Expana warns that companies must prepare for both “black swan” events—sudden, unpredictable crises—and “grey rhinos,” which are large, visible risks that build gradually over time.

Expana identifies several critical indicators of economic instability, including the US Treasury yield curve and rising US unemployment rates. The firm notes that when structural vulnerabilities are hit by sudden external shocks, such as the Middle East crisis or new tariff pressures, the impact on energy, shipping, and manufacturing can be severe.

In response to these systemic vulnerabilities, the Institute of Enterprise Risk Practitioners (IERP) suggests that organizations must move away from fragile “just-in-time” models toward structural redundancy. Experts argue that geopolitical intelligence must be embedded directly into enterprise risk management and scenario planning to transform reactive crisis management into proactive resilience engineering.