Global wheat prices hit three‑year high amid Black Sea conflict and heatwaves

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to $7.08 per bushel, the highest level since May 2024, as geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region and extreme weather amplified supply concerns. Russian‑Ukrainian hostilities have restricted grain shipments through the Kerch Strait and Azov Sea, while Ukrainian drones have struck Russian ports, prompting shippers such as Maersk to suspend voyages. At the same time, severe heatwaves in the United States, Europe and Australia, together with a strong El Niño forecast, have reduced planting areas and threatened yields.

The combined effect has lifted the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index to a three‑year peak and pushed wheat, corn and soybean prices to multi‑year highs. Analysts attribute the rally to “whether physical supply comes to those who need it,” noting that logistics disruptions in the Hormuz Strait are driving up fertilizer costs and further tightening wheat markets. Commonwealth Bank economist Dennis Voznesenski said, “Karadeniz’deki ihracat kapasitesindeki aksaklıklar küresel buğday fiyatlarını yükseltti.”

Investors warn that prolonged supply constraints could trigger broader food‑inflation pressures, while market participants watch for any diplomatic breakthroughs that might reopen Black Sea routes or alleviate heat‑related crop stress.