German aviation seat capacity projected to stagnate through early 2027

The German aviation market is expected to stagnate during the upcoming winter half-year period from September 2026 to February 2027. According to data from the Bundesverband der Deutschen Luftverkehrswirtschaft (BDL), airlines will provide a total of 117.6 million seats for flights to, from, and within Germany, representing zero growth compared to the previous year.

This trend contrasts with the broader European market, which is projected to grow by 5 percent during the same period, reaching 115 percent of pre-pandemic levels. The gap is particularly evident among European point-to-point carriers; while these airlines have expanded capacity to 141 percent of pre-pandemic levels across Europe, their market share in Germany remains at only 28 percent.

Industry associations attribute this lack of growth to rising state-imposed costs, including aviation taxes, increased air security fees, and rising air traffic control charges. This development particularly impacts regional secondary airports that rely on direct connections from low-cost carriers like Ryanair, Eurowings, and Easyjet. Some providers have indicated they may relocate aircraft to more cost-effective locations in other European countries due to declining profitability at German airports.