Germany energy crisis increases support for AfD

A study by CESifo, part of the University of Munich, reveals that the 2022-2023 energy crisis in Germany significantly impacted voter behavior, driving a 7.5 point increase in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) among households facing high electricity price hikes.

While wholesale electricity prices declined in 2023, retail prices for consumers rose by 25% to 30%. Following the Russia-Ukraine war, unit prices reached approximately 0.45 euros per kilowatt-hour, representing a 42% total increase. Households experiencing an increase in monthly electricity advance payments of over 31% were identified as the high-increase group.

The research indicates that the AfD gained appeal by promising lower energy costs and opposing sanctions against Russia. Conversely, the Green Party experienced a notable loss of support among these voters. Despite a 95 billion euro government support package intended to mitigate the crisis, the political shift toward the far-right appears to have persisted.