Germany online returns projected to reach record 560 million in 2026

Online returns in Germany are projected to reach a record high of 560 million packages in 2026, according to calculations by Björn Asdecker from the University of Bamberg. This is an increase from 550 million packages in the previous year.

Experts attribute the rise to the continued growth of e-commerce and a shift toward smartphone shopping. Asdecker notes that purchasing via mobile apps tends to be faster and involves less information consumption before completing an order, which may increase return rates. Currently, nearly one in four online orders is returned.

The fashion segment is the most heavily impacted, accounting for over 80 percent of returned packages and approximately 90 percent of returned items. High return volumes create significant margin pressure for retailers, with about 20 percent of companies reporting costs exceeding 10 euros per return. The EHI Retail Institute reports that return transport constitutes roughly two-thirds of these costs.

To mitigate these expenses, many retailers offer free returns, often passing the costs on to all customers through higher product prices. Some companies are also beginning to experiment with artificial intelligence to better analyze and manage return processes, though many of these remain in the pilot phase.