Germany rail reliability declines amid rising competition

Germany's long-distance rail network has seen a decline in reliability, with a notable decrease in the proportion of trains arriving within six minutes of their scheduled time. This trend is most pronounced in long-distance services, where delays can cascade through the crowded network due to limited scheduling flexibility.

As a result of these reliability issues, passenger numbers on Deutsche Bahn's long-distance services have been steadily decreasing since the post-pandemic recovery began in 2022–23.

In response to the evolving market, the Italian open-access operator Italo has ordered a high-speed fleet to launch services on routes including Munich–Dortmund and Munich–Berlin–Hamburg by 2028. The future growth of the German long-distance market depends on whether infrastructure maintenance and modernization can successfully reverse current reliability trends.