Friedrich Merz's Reform Package Fails to Boost Support, AfD Leads in Polls

The coalition government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Vice‑Chancellor Lars Klingbeil announced a 34‑measure reform package aimed at raising competitiveness, cutting bureaucracy, preserving the welfare state and lowering taxes. Despite the rollout, the latest RTL/ntv Trendbarometer (based on a Forsa survey of 2,502 German adults from 30 June to 6 July) shows the Union at 22 % and the SPD at 12 %, while the AfD leads with 26 %.

Merz’s personal approval fell to 14 %, a point lower than the previous week, and 84 % of respondents now view his performance critically. The reform agenda includes a €10 billion tax relief, removal of certain reporting obligations, and a controversial plan to introduce mandatory medical certificates from the first day of sickness and to abolish the telephone sick‑note. Doctors’ unions, social groups and trade unions have protested the new attendance‑certificate rules.

The government is set to present the reform programme in a Bundestag address, where Merz is expected to reference both the NATO summit and the coalition’s policy agenda. The poor poll results suggest the reforms have not improved the governing parties’ standing and may embolden the AfD ahead of upcoming state elections.