Baden‑Württemberg poll shows AfD ahead as Greens lose ground

A new INSA poll released on 11 July 2026 shows the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) leading in Baden‑Württemberg with 28 % of the vote, unchanged from the previous survey. The CDU/CSU follows at 22 %, also unchanged. The SPD holds 12 % (down 1 point), while the Greens drop to 12 % (down 2 points). The Left records 11 % (down 2 points), other parties rise to 7 % (up 4 points), the FDP remains at 4 %, and the BSW climbs to 4 % (up 1 point). The same poll notes that in Rhineland‑Papfalz no party coalition commands a clear majority, leaving a “traffic‑light” (Ampel) coalition without a decisive lead and opening the possibility of a “grand coalition” (GroKo). These figures reflect shifting voter sentiment ahead of upcoming elections.