Germany's fuel tax rebate only partly passed to consumers, study finds

The independent Monopolkommission assessed the temporary fuel tax reduction (Tankrabatt) of 16.7 cents per litre that ends in two weeks. It estimates that 15–16 cents per litre were transferred to drivers, meaning 100–200 million euros of the 1.6 billion‑euro tax cut did not reach consumers.

Pass‑through varied regionally: the north‑west saw the highest reduction (16.7–17.3 cents), the east slightly below the tax cut (16–16.4 cents), and the south lagged (13.3–14.9 cents). Diesel prices generally fell less than the tax cut, while gasoline (E5/E10) sometimes exceeded it in early weeks. The commission attributes the incomplete and uneven effect to insufficient competition at the refinery and wholesale level.

The analysis advises against extending the rebate, citing its high cost, disproportionate benefit to high‑mileage drivers, and its dampening of price signals needed to curb consumption amid war‑related oil scarcity. Fuel prices continue to decline, with recent ADAC data showing diesel around €1.76 per litre and E10 near €1.83, approaching pre‑war levels.