Ghana 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review draws mixed economic assessments

Ghana’s 2026 Mid-Year Fiscal Policy Review has drawn contrasting assessments regarding its economic targets and fiscal direction. The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has labeled the government’s growth and revenue projections as unrealistic. Dr. Said Boakye, Executive Director of the IFS, argued that the projections fail to reflect the economy's stronger-than-expected performance, noting that real GDP growth exceeded five percent in 2025. The IFS suggested that the government should update its macroeconomic assumptions to improve budget credibility and transparency.

Conversely, analysis of the review suggests a strategic shift toward fiscal discipline. The government has reaffirmed targets including a growth rate of at least 4.8 percent and inflation at 8 percent. Recent data indicates first-quarter GDP growth reached 6.4 percent, while inflation has fallen to approximately 5.3 percent. Additionally, public debt has decreased from 61.8 percent of GDP at the end of 2024 to approximately 45 percent by mid-2026, leading to an upgrade in Ghana’s debt distress rating from high to moderate.