Ghana Cocoa Board forecasts 16% production drop

The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has warned of a significant decline in cocoa production, forecasting a drop of at least 16 percent for the 2026/27 harvest season. This downturn is primarily attributed to unfavorable weather conditions.

As Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer, these projections have heightened global market volatility. Market analysts have adjusted their outlooks; StoneX significantly reduced its estimate for the global cocoa surplus for the 2026/27 period, revising it from an expected 149,000 tons to a minimal surplus of approximately 25,000 tons. This revision reflects growing concerns regarding a potential El Niño event that could further threaten harvests in West Africa.

Financial markets have reacted sharply to the supply risk. The WisdomTree Cocoa 2x Daily Leveraged EUR experienced a 13 percent price jump following the reports. Bloomberg also noted that harvest expectations starting in September 2026 have been lowered to 650,000 tons, down from over 750,000 tons in the current season.