Ghana trade surplus drives Fitch to raise 2026 current account forecast

Fitch Solutions has significantly upgraded its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of GDP, up from a previous estimate of 5.2%. This revision follows a US$4.3 billion merchandise trade surplus recorded in the first half of 2026, a figure that far exceeds the US$700 million average seen during comparable periods between 2016 and 2025.

The improved trade performance is primarily attributed to robust gold exports and increased shipments of crude oil. This strengthening external position provides Ghana with improved buffers against foreign-exchange shortages, currency volatility, and inflation, which have historically impacted the cedi.

While Fitch Solutions expects the surplus to narrow in 2027, the current trajectory suggests a sustained recovery in the external sector. The sustainability of this surplus remains linked to global commodity prices and continued export performance.