Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott in Texas gubernatorial poll

A Marist Poll conducted in September shows Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa leading Republican incumbent Greg Abbott by three percentage points in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race. Hinojosa holds 49% of the vote compared to Abbott’s 46%, though the result falls within the poll's 4.4% margin of error. Hinojosa shows particular strength among independent voters, securing 52% of their preference against Abbott's 39%.

Despite the polling advantage, 68% of registered voters surveyed believe Abbott will ultimately win the election. Hinojosa has attributed her competitive standing to a campaign strategy that avoids “culture wars” to focus on economic issues. This approach has sparked debate regarding whether Democratic candidates should prioritize social issues or economic concerns to remain effective in modern elections.