Agricultural commodity prices rise amid drought and supply concerns

Agricultural commodity markets are experiencing significant volatility due to shifting production outlooks. Corn prices rose in September, with CME futures increasing by nearly 12%, Euronext by 4%, and Bologna contracts by approximately 7%. This upward trend is driven by deteriorating production prospects in the Northern Hemisphere and supply uncertainties in Europe. The European Commission estimates a corn harvest of just 50.1 million tonnes, a 17% decrease compared to 2025, due to drought and high temperatures.

In the United States, the Department of Agriculture has reduced its 2026/27 production estimate by over 5 million tonnes, placing it 7% below last year’s record. Logistics also play a role in rising costs, as Black Sea traffic limitations and low Danube water levels hinder alternative shipping routes.

In other sectors, durum wheat prices are seeing a slow increase in Italy, influenced by a weak euro and supply uncertainties regarding Canadian crop quality. Meanwhile, in the Bologna metropolitan area, viticulturists report a positive 2026 harvest, with grape production estimated to increase by 10-15% despite extreme heat and uneven rainfall.