Global canned fish market faces supply risks amid climate and geopolitical shifts

The global canned fish market is experiencing significant growth, with projections suggesting it could reach between $17.2 billion and $17.97 billion by the early 2030s. This surge is driven by a culinary revival and increasing nutritional awareness. Nutritionists highlight canned fish as a cost-effective source of omega-3 fatty acids, vitamin B12, and vitamin D, which are essential for heart health and reducing the risk of diabetes.

However, the supply of key species like sardines is facing severe pressure. Morocco, the world’s leading sardine supplier, reported a nearly 46% decline in fish landings between 2022 and 2024. This shortage is attributed to a combination of climate change and geopolitical instability. Warming ocean temperatures are driving fish populations into new territories, forcing fishermen to travel further distances.

Simultaneously, conflict in Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have increased fuel costs, making these longer fishing trips more expensive. This ‘double whammy’ of environmental shifts and rising operational costs is significantly impacting the availability and cost of shelf-stable seafood.