Global commodity markets see rising agricultural and diesel prices

Agricultural commodities, specifically wheat, soybeans, and sugar, have achieved significant year-to-date gains and strong risk-adjusted returns. Wheat and soybeans have demonstrated a record price correlation of 0.919 in 2026, with approximately 85% of their price movements overlapping.

In the energy sector, diesel prices are rising despite projections that Brent crude oil may settle around $80 a barrel. This trend is driven by a global shortage of refining capacity. Goldman Sachs expects refining capacity outside of China to decrease by approximately 300,000 barrels per day this year, while roughly 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern refining capacity remains offline. Additionally, Russian refining has faced disruptions. Due to these infrastructure constraints, the crack spread for diesel and jet fuel could remain more than twice its normal level through 2027.