Global energy demand and trade trends face significant shifts

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly increased its projection for the decline in global oil demand for 2026, raising the estimate from 1.6 million to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd). This decline is expected to be concentrated in diesel, aviation fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks, particularly in Asia. The agency also noted that global oil supply is projected to decrease by 5.7 million bpd in 2026.

Separately, a World Trade Organization (WTO) study warns of the economic consequences of a retreat in globalization. The report outlines two potential scenarios for the coming decades. In a scenario where the world divides into three distinct blocs, global exports could fall by 18.6% and world GDP by 5.1% by 2050. A more fragmented scenario involving a proliferation of disparate free-trade agreements could lead to a 26.9% drop in global sales and a 6.9% reduction in global GDP, with poorer nations facing the most severe impacts.