Global energy markets face shifts as coal capacity rises and copper supply tightens

Global planned coal mining capacity increased by 11% last year, reaching 2,521 million tonnes per annum (mtpa), according to a report by Global Energy Monitor. This growth is largely driven by India, which nearly doubled its planned capacity from 329 mtpa to 658 mtpa to mitigate geopolitical risks and heatwaves. Approximately 92% of planned developments are concentrated in five countries: India, China, Australia, Russia, and South Africa. China leads in development-stage capacity at 1,321 mtpa, with 15% of its projects linked to coal-to-chemical production.

Simultaneously, the global copper market faces supply concerns as Chilean state company Codelco prepares to lower its 2026 production targets. Operational disruptions and project delays have forced the company to focus on maintaining current levels rather than increasing output. This potential slowdown comes at a time of surging demand driven by artificial intelligence data centers, electric vehicles, renewable energy investments, and power grid modernizations.