Global energy security threatened by ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine

Global energy markets face significant instability as conflicts in key oil-producing regions continue to disrupt supply. Following US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran six months ago, the confrontation has impacted maritime transport and energy markets, specifically threatening the Strait of Hormuz. Experts suggest the future of the conflict depends on Iran's ability to withstand economic pressure, the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs, and whether Russia and China provide reconstruction assistance to Tehran.

Data indicates that by 2026, nearly half of the world's oil supply could originate from conflict-affected areas. Current disruptions, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Persian Gulf, have reduced global refining capacity by approximately one-tenth. While the world has become more dependent on American oil, risks remain high due to ongoing attacks in the Red Sea and near the Suez Canal. Additionally, Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining infrastructure have led to fuel shortages and export bans in Russia.