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Global food prices projected to rise amid climate and geopolitical shocks
Global food prices are projected to rise significantly, with Oxford Economics forecasting an 11.8% increase this year and a 4.8% increase in 2027. Wheat is expected to face the highest pressure, potentially driving up the cost of bread and pasta.
Several factors are contributing to this trend. Extreme heatwaves and droughts in Europe have severely impacted agricultural yields. The CoRoRaL association has lowered its combined cereal harvest forecast for the EU-27 and the UK to 286.6 million tonnes, down from 310 million tonnes in 2025. In France, producers are warning of a crisis in vegetable yields, with some crops like artichokes facing potential losses of up to 100%.
Geopolitical tensions are also playing a critical role. The conflict in Ukraine and tensions between the US and Iran are impacting the supply of essential inputs, including diesel, natural gas, and fertilizers. Specifically, the conflict in the Middle East has led to supply disruptions and increased costs for energy and raw materials, further straining the agricultural sector.
Entities
COSECEREAL · CoRoRaL · Copernicus · European Union · Germany · Oxford Economics · Tomas Dvorak · United States
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 3 SOURCES] Global food prices are projected to rise by 11.8% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027. biznisinfo.mk · expres.mk · vesti.alfa.mk
- [● 2 SOURCES] Germany's wheat harvest is expected to decrease by 7% this year due to drought and heatwaves. biznisinfo.mk · expres.mk
- [● 2 SOURCES] The conflict between the US and Iran is a major driver of food price volatility due to its impact on diesel, natural gas, and fertilizer inputs. biznisinfo.mk · expres.mk
- [● 3 SOURCES] CoRoRaL has lowered its combined cereal harvest forecast for the EU-27 and the UK to 286.6 million tonnes, down from 295.5 million tonnes. biznisinfo.mk · expres.mk · vesti.alfa.mk
- [○ 1 SOURCE] French vegetable producers anticipate significant yield drops, including 40% for peas and up to 100% for artichokes. lokalno.mk
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Copernicus climate agency warned of a continuous risk of heatwaves across Europe through August and September. lokalno.mk