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Global food prices projected to rise amid war and drought
Global food prices are projected to rise significantly, with Oxford Economics forecasting increases of 11.8 percent in 2026 and 4.8 percent in 2027. Wheat is expected to face intense price pressure, potentially raising the costs of bread and pasta.
Several factors are driving this trend. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine threatens global grain supplies, as the two nations control nearly 30 percent of wheat exports and over 10 percent of corn exports. Attacks on maritime infrastructure and ports in the Black and Azov Seas risk disrupting up to 86 million tons of annual grain export capacity.
In Europe, extreme heatwaves and droughts have severely impacted harvests. Coceral has lowered the grain harvest forecast for the EU and UK to 286.6 million tons. Specifically, Germany's grain harvest is expected to drop by 7 percent to 41.9 million tons.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran, are driving up production costs. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to a 36 percent year-on-year increase in diesel prices. These tensions also impact the costs of natural gas and fertilizers, with fertilizer prices expected to rise by 22 percent this year.
Entities
Coceral · European Union · Hormuz Strait · Iran · Oxford Economics · Russia · Thomas Dvorak · Ukraine
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 30 percent of global wheat exports and over 10 percent of corn exports. www.index.hr · dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · tr.euronews.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Germany's grain harvest is expected to fall by 7 percent to 41.9 million tons due to drought and heatwaves. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · tr.euronews.com · www.index.hr
- [● 3 SOURCES] Fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 22 percent this year. www.index.hr · dalmatinskiportal.hr · tr.euronews.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Coceral reduced the grain harvest forecast for the EU and UK from 295.5 million to 286.6 million tons. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · www.index.hr · tr.euronews.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Attacks on ports and terminals in Russia and Ukraine could threaten 86 million tons of annual grain export capacity. www.index.hr
- [● 4 SOURCES] The conflict between the US and Iran is a major driver of food price pressure by affecting diesel, natural gas, and fertilizer costs. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · www.index.hr · tr.euronews.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Global food prices are projected to increase by 11.8 percent in 2026 and by an additional 4.8 percent in 2027. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · www.index.hr · tr.euronews.com
- [● 4 SOURCES] Wheat is expected to face significant price pressure, which may increase the cost of bread and pasta. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · www.index.hr · tr.euronews.com