Global food prices projected to rise amid harvest shortages and Black Sea conflict

global food prices grain production forecast wheat price increase Black Sea conflict agricultural yields

Global food prices are facing significant upward pressure due to a combination of geopolitical instability and adverse weather conditions. Oxford Economics projects that global food prices will rise by 11.8 percent in 2026 and 4.8 percent in 2027. Wheat is particularly vulnerable, with potential price increases of 36 percent in the third quarter of this year.

In Europe, Coceral has lowered the grain harvest forecast for the EU and UK to 286.6 million tons, down from 295.5 million. France is also experiencing severe impacts from heatwaves and drought, which are expected to diminish both grain and vegetable yields. Additionally, the International Grains Council (IGC) has reduced the global grain production forecast for 2026/27 by 6 million tons.

Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea continue to disrupt supply chains. Attacks on ports and infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine threaten approximately 86 million tons of annual grain export capacity. Specifically, logistical issues in Ukraine may limit corn exports to 14 million tons for the 2026/27 season. Furthermore, conflicts affecting energy markets, such as those involving Iran, are driving up the costs of diesel, natural gas, and fertilizers, further compounding the economic burden on the agricultural sector.

Entities

BIMCO · Black Sea · Coceral · European Union · Hormuz Strait · International Grains Council · Iran · Oxford Economics · Russia · Thomas Dvorak · USDA · Ukraine

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 13 SOURCES] Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 30 percent of global wheat exports and over 10 percent of corn exports. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · lider.mk · alsat.mk · businessmag.al · +5 more
[● 11 SOURCES] Germany's grain harvest is expected to fall by 7 percent to 41.9 million tons due to drought and heatwaves. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · lider.mk · businessmag.al · www.mesazhi.com · +3 more
[● 12 SOURCES] Fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 22 percent this year. dalmatinskiportal.hr · alsat.mk · businessmag.al · www.dalmacijadanas.hr · www.tportal.hr · +4 more
[● 16 SOURCES] Coceral reduced the grain harvest forecast for the EU and UK from 295.5 million to 286.6 million tons. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · lider.mk · alsat.mk · businessmag.al · +9 more
[● 12 SOURCES] Attacks on ports and terminals in Russia and Ukraine could threaten 86 million tons of annual grain export capacity. lider.mk · www.dalmacijadanas.hr · expres.mk · racin.mk · alsat.mk · +5 more
[● 13 SOURCES] The conflict between the US and Iran is a major driver of food price pressure by affecting diesel, natural gas, and fertilizer costs. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · lider.mk · alsat.mk · businessmag.al · +6 more
[● 16 SOURCES] Global food prices are projected to increase by 11.8 percent in 2026 and by an additional 4.8 percent in 2027. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · lider.mk · alsat.mk · businessmag.al · +8 more
[● 14 SOURCES] Wheat is expected to face significant price pressure, which may increase the cost of bread and pasta. dalmatinskiportal.hr · tocka.com.mk · lider.mk · alsat.mk · businessmag.al · +6 more
[● 2 SOURCES] Attacks on shipping have shut down more than 97 percent of Russia and Ukraine’s grain export capacity in the Azov and Black Sea basin. www.arabnews.pk · www.maritimeprofessional.com
[● 11 SOURCES] Wheat prices could be 36 percent higher in the third quarter of this year compared to the previous year. lider.mk · biznisvesti.mk · www.mesazhi.com · tocka.com.mk · racin.mk · +6 more
[● 10 SOURCES] Wheat prices could increase by 36 percent in the third quarter of this year. expres.mk · lider.mk · moj.powiat.pl · racin.mk · alsat.mk · +5 more
[● 2 SOURCES] Corn yields in parts of the US Midwest are expected to be lower than previous years due to weather conditions. www.agrarwelt.com · www.agri-mutuel.com