Global fossil fuel production plans exceed 1.5C warming limit by 110 percent

The Production Gap Report 2023, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute for the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), reveals a significant discrepancy between global climate goals and actual fossil fuel plans. Current production plans from the 20 most intensive countries exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius warming limit by 110 percent and the 2-degree limit by 69 percent.

To meet the Paris Agreement targets, global fossil fuel production would need to decrease by half. Instead, major producers are planning to increase or maintain production levels. The report highlights that achieving these goals requires rapid transitions toward solar and wind energy, halting deforestation, ecosystem restoration, low-carbon agriculture, and fossil-free industry.

Complementary research from Leiden University examines the individual role of household consumption in meeting these targets. Modeling suggests that in high-emission countries, at least 87 percent of the population would need to adopt significant lifestyle changes—such as reducing internal combustion engine use, switching from fossil fuel heating, and adopting plant-based diets—to achieve a 1.5-degree compatible carbon footprint by 2030. However, the study notes that for some nations, even extensive industrial decarbonization combined with lifestyle changes may not meet the 2050 targets.