Global gas market faces cyclical decline in 2026 despite long-term growth

The Global Gas Report 2026, published by Rystad Energy, the International Gas Union, and Snam, indicates that while the global gas market faces a cyclical downturn in 2026, long-term structural growth prospects remain intact.

Global demand is projected to decrease by 7 bcm (0.2% year-on-year), with regional variations: North America is expected to grow by 10 bcm, while the Middle East is forecasted to see a 17 bcm decline. Global production is also expected to fall slightly by 4 bcm (0.1%). The report notes that production decreases in the Middle East may be largely offset by growth in the United States and other regions.

Market volatility is heavily influenced by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. Additionally, global gas trade is expected to contract to 1,083 bcm, driven by a 17 bcm drop in pipeline flows due to the substitution of Russian gas. Despite these short-term challenges, industry confidence remains high, evidenced by significant final investment decisions in liquefaction and regasification projects totaling 35 Mt and 25 Mt respectively.